The World Bank has warned that water shortages will severely hurt economies of the countries in Africa including Middle East and Central Asia by the middle of the century, taking double digits off their GDP.
The bank predicted that by 2050, growing demand for cities and for agriculture would put water in short supply in regions where it is now plentiful and worsen shortages across a vast swath of Africa and Asia, spurring conflict and migration. Water shortages could strip off 14 per cent of GDP in the Middle East and nearly 12 per cent of GDP in the Sahel– without a radical shift in management-according to the bank’s projections.
The bank predicted that by 2050, growing demand for cities and for agriculture would put water in short supply in regions where it is now plentiful and worsen shortages across a vast swath of Africa and Asia, spurring conflict and migration. Water shortages could strip off 14 per cent of GDP in the Middle East and nearly 12 per cent of GDP in the Sahel– without a radical shift in management-according to the bank’s projections.
Central Asia could lose close to 11 per cent of GDP and East Asia
about seven percent ‘under business-as-usual water management policies,’ according to a new report. Taking into account all regions, the mid-range toll of water shortages on GDP was about sixpercent.
“There is a severe hit on GDP,” said Richard Damania, lead environmental economist for the bank and author of “High and Dry: Climate Change, Water and the Economy. ”The biggest economic hit due to water deficits are expected to occur in the Middle East, North Africa, Central Asia, and parts of South Asia, the report found. There would be virtually no impact on the economies of North America and Western Europe.
Rainfall including the monsoons that fortify agriculture in South Asia will become more unpredictable, while storm surges could contaminate freshwater reservoirs. But there will also be pressure on water supply from rising populations especially in cities – and increased demand from agriculture, “It turns out that economic growth is a thirsty business,” Damania said. Some cities could see water availability drop by two-thirds by 2050, the report found adding that water shortages could have rebounding effects on food production, public health, and household incomes – with families forced to pay more for a basic necessity.
But, the report said, encouraging more efficient use of water could make a big difference in the mid-century economic scenarios for regions threatened by water shortages.
But, the report said, encouraging more efficient use of water could make a big difference in the mid-century economic scenarios for regions threatened by water shortages.
